Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+17.0%
Secondary
Market
44.8%
Certus
40.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.0%
Result
Market
44.8%
Certus
40.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.0%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-10 05:00
· Certus
Indy Eleven vs Hartford AthleticIndy Eleven vs Hartford Athletic
Predicted1-0
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice of home and guest and home win
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This U.S. Champions League game pits the 8th-ranked Indiana Eleven on the East Coast against the 9th-ranked Hartford Athletic. According to our latest online search of league data for August 2026, although Indiana Eleven has experienced a decline in its recent losing streak, its home combat effectiveness is still very strong, with a dominant performance of 6 wins, 1 loss and 1 loss in the first 8 home games this season. In addition, this game is the 100th game coach Sean McAuley has coached the team. The team has a strong sense of rebound and home honor.
Although the visiting team Hartford Athletic currently has a tight score against the home team, the team has fatal offensive flaws. In the 17 completed league games, they have only scored 12 goals, averaging as low as 0.7 goals per game. In the past 5 league games, it has been difficult to win and only scored 2 goals. Although their defensive performance is acceptable (only conceding 16 goals), when facing the strong Indiana Eleven at home, the situation is expected to be completely passive.
In terms of market pricing, the implied probability of the main victory is 44.8%, which does not reach the advantage range of high confidence (< 45%). Considering that the handicap does not include defensive assets such as a tie handicap (Asian handicap), based on Hartford Sports' extremely sluggish offensive data and the potential boring attributes of both sides, the core strategy of this game is to avoid the game of victory and defeat in accordance with the law, and prioritize the "thin" line of goal size.
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