Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+14.2%
Secondary
Market
25.3%
Certus
26.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.9%
Result
Market
51.0%
Certus
50.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.1%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-08-12 02:15
· Certus
Slovan Bratislava vs MjallbySlovan Bratislava vs Mjallby
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core configuration [2.5] is large, second choice handicap home and away and [-1] to capture accurate goal difference.
Primary[2.5] Over✗Secondaryand[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the second leg of the third qualifying round of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. In the first round as a guest, ŠK Slovan Bratislava defeated Swedish team Mjällby AIF 2-1 with a stoppage-time winner, taking the initiative to advance.
Tactics and lineup dynamics (latest information in August 2026):
Shi Luoyun, coached by Yaya Touré, has been in hot form recently. In the domestic league last weekend, the team deliberately rotated many main players and still won 3-0. Mustafic scored twice as a substitute, showing the depth of the lineup. Although the main forward Andraž Šporar continues to be absent due to a torn thigh muscle, the forward combination of Kamara and Chianga has proven its counterattack efficiency in the first round.
The visiting team Mizanby is currently in deep trouble in the Swedish Super League (ranked only 11th), the defense is not stable (the league average conceded 1.36 goals), and forward Timo Stavitski is doubtful due to a back injury.
Result prediction and handicap configuration:
The market is priced at 1.76 for the main win (implied probability of about 50.3%), which is on the border between high confidence and gray area. The strategic pattern of this game is very clear: Mizanby fell behind in the first round and must take the initiative in the second round, and the defense line must move forward; this will leave a huge space for Shi Luoyun to counterattack. Under the expectation of this open confrontation, the market-implied premium of [2.5] ball baseline does not fully reflect the tactical inevitability of both sides.
In terms of configuration, priority is given to locking [2.5] Big as the core asset. In addition, it is expected that Shi Luoyun can double defeat his opponent (such as 2-1) by virtue of his home court advantage and counterattack efficiency. Using the ** and [-1]** options of handicap home and away (no handicap mechanism), he can accurately capture the result of the home team's "exactly one goal difference" and offset the tasteless feeling of insufficient single-win market pricing.
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