Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
57.3%
Certus
51.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.6%
Settled
UE Super Cup · 2026-08-13 03:00
· Certus
Paris Saint Germain vs Aston VillaParis Saint Germain vs Aston Villa
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
Core Configuration [2.5] Big, Second Choice Handicap Primary [-0.5/-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[-0.5/-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical and injury information (2026 on-the-spot data)
The 2026 UEFA Super Cup will be held at the Red Bull Arena in Austria. According to the latest on-the-spot intelligence, Aston Villa is currently experiencing a severe wave of injuries and the pain of lineup reorganization: main defensive midfielder Amadou Onana faces a long-term absence due to a cruciate ligament injury, new aid Johan Manzambi missed the final due to a knee injury, and core midfielder John McGinn was also injured in a friendly match and is doubtful. At the same time, the departures of Tellivens and Rogers forced Aymari to reorganize the midfield, and the defensive barrier appeared weak.
For Paris Saint-Germain, although many of the main players participating in the 2026 World Cup (such as Xia Kemei, Niu Nuwendis, Marquinus, etc.) returned to the team late, their physical condition is a major concern; but the newly introduced Kvaratskhelia, Zuo Nieves and Vitina have strong midfield control. Luis Enrique's signature 2-3-5 high attacking formation is expected to gain absolute possession of the ball in Villa's incomplete midfield area.
Results and Handicap Error Assessment
From a tactical perspective, Paris will take the initiative, but its aggressive high defense will also expose a huge space behind them; although Villa's midfield is damaged, Alejandro Garnacho and Ollie Watkins, who joined on loan from Chelsea, can provide a very threatening straight-line counterattack. Considering the nature of the cup final and the offensive and defensive characteristics of both sides, the chance of an open confrontation in this game is extremely high. The market's implied high level of [2.5] is 1.76, which shows prevention of goals, but still has high investment value.
In terms of handicap, PSG has an implied probability of winning at 56.5%. The collective absence of Villa's midfield meat grinder made it difficult for them to resist Paris' powerful offensive throughout the game. Therefore, on the basis of core defense against high goal numbers, it is optimistic that Paris can defeat its opponents and win the cup within 90 minutes.
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