Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+10.3%
Secondary
Market
83.3%
Certus
69.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.8%
Result
Market
83.3%
Certus
69.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.8%
Settled
Women Brazilian Paulista League · 2026-08-13 04:00
· Certus
Mirassol Women vs Corinthians WomenMirassol Women vs Corinthians Women
Predicted0-4
Actual1-4
Core configuration [3.5] Large, second choice handicap home and away and away [-3]
Primary[3.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[-3]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This match is a showdown between the strong and weak in the women's Brazilian Sao Paulo League. According to the latest data retrieved from the Internet, the home team Mirassol Women's Football Team (Mirassol), as a new team in the league, has only recorded 1 and 4 losses in 5 games, and remains at the bottom with 1 point. Its defense is extremely fragile, scoring 1 goal in 5 games but conceding 14 goals. Earlier, it suffered 0-5 and 0-4 defeats at the feet of strong teams such as Pemeras and Ferroviaria. The visiting team Corinthians is the top team in Brazil. Although players such as midfielders Andressa Alves and Ana Vitória have recently suffered from injuries, and they have been rotated in the state league due to multi-line operations (currently ranked fourth with 2 wins, 1 and 2 losses), the overall depth of the lineup and offensive firepower far exceed their opponents.
In terms of market pricing, the customer win market pricing are as low as 1.06, reflecting the extremely low suspense of victory or defeat. Under extremely high direction probability (expected winning rate >85%), there is no investment value in directly choosing the customer win rate. Taking into account Corrientes' strong ability to "abuse food" and Milasso's fragile defense, it is expected that the number of goals scored in this game will easily break through the [3.5] goal defense line. The core strategy is to lock in the goal size [3.5]; the second choice is to aggressively distribute the ball home and away and away from home [-3], and it is optimistic that the away team can win by at least 4 goals.
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