Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
45.2%
Certus
41.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.7%
Settled
Mexican Division 1 · 2026-08-14 09:00
· Certus
Oaxaca vs TepatitlanOaxaca vs Tepatitlan
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] big, second choice team goal size main [1.5] big
Primary[2.5] Over✗Secondarymain [1.5] big—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Combat strength and current situation (based on the latest data in 2026)
According to the latest match report for the Mexican Primera Division Spring (Apertura) in August 2026, Tepatitlán is facing a catastrophic defensive crisis. The team suffered 3 consecutive defeats in the first 3 rounds of the league, conceding 9 goals (including the recent 0-5 defeat to Atletico La Paz), and currently sits at the bottom of the table with 0 points. The home team Oshaka also had a poor start, ranking 12th with 1 win and 2 losses and 3 points. However, the 5 goals conceded on the defensive end are still within control. This game has the confidence to stop the decline at home and rebound.
2. Market pricing and handicap structure
The market initially gave the main victory market pricing of about 1.95 (implied probability 45.2%), showing that confidence in Oshaka's victory is not absolute (falling in the 42-52% gray zone). It is worth noting that this extended handicap does not include a conventional Asian Handicap tie or shallow handicap, so the conventional "water defense" strategy cannot be used in the configuration. At the same time, the market pricing of the Over/Under [2.5] were pushed down to 1.76, showing that the market is highly prepared to prevent Tepatitlan's colander defense from getting out of control again.
3. Tactical deduction and configuration decision
Tepatitlán plays away from home and has a useless defense, so Oshaca is bound to dominate the offense at home. Although Tepartitlan won 2-0 in the match between the two sides in April 2026, the current lineup status is no longer the same. Since the certainty of the home winning direction is not high, and the handicap home and away (HAD) does not have a handicap mechanism, we strictly follow the decision tree and turn the core strategy to the goal premium brought by the Tepatitlán defense line, locking the total goals [2.5] is the first choice.
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