Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.2%
Secondary
Market
25.2%
Certus
26.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.1%
Result
Market
49.3%
Certus
46.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-15 18:30
· Certus
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon FCSuwon Bluewings vs Suwon FC
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
Core configuration [2.5] Big, second choice handicap home and away and [-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✓Secondaryand[-1]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
【2026 K2 League "Suwon Derby": The top defense line versus the strongest firepower】
Current Strength and Points Status: After verification, as of mid-August 2026, Suwon Blue Wings temporarily ranked first in the South Korean League B with 40 points, and the defense line with only conceding 17 goals in 20 league games was impregnable; FC Suwon is closely behind them (3rd place) with 36 points in one game, and has scored 39 goals in 19 games (2.05 goals in average). It is the undisputed strongest firepower in the league. This game is a standard "spear and shield battle".
Tactics and emotions intertwined: FC Suwon is coached by Park Gun-ha, the famous Suwon Blue Wing player this season, which adds strong tactical pertinence and emotional tension to this city derby. Looking back at the first round match between the two sides on May 3 this year, FC Suwon defeated Suwon Blue Wings 3-1 at home with a strong offensive transition. After the Suwon Blue Wings added foreign aid Iljutcenko this season, their frontcourt fulcrum and finishing ability have also been significantly improved.
Market Pricing and Handicap Evaluation: Although the implied probability of the home win (49.3%) gives reasonable respect to the top team, under the background of the nature of the game and the strong attack of the visiting team, there is a certain risk of being upset in a one-on-one home win. In view of the market's high degree of caution against big goal pricing ([2.5] big 1.60), the highest confidence asset in this game should be on the number of goals scored. It is expected that the two sides will play a high-tempo attack. The Blue Wings are expected to get revenge at home, but it is difficult to guarantee the goal. A narrow victory (such as 2-1) is the scenario with the highest probability.
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