Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
57.5%
Certus
32.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-25.0%
Settled
Spanish Division 1 · 2026-08-16 03:30
· Certus
Sevilla vs VallecanoSevilla vs Vallecano
Predicted1-1
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0/+0.5]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0/+0.5]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Strength and lineup changes (beginning of 2026-27 season): This game is the first round of the new La Liga season. Last season, the club narrowly avoided relegation in 13th place. During the offseason, they hired new coach Luis García Plaza and introduced forward Robbie Ure from the Swedish Super League to fill the vacancy left by the departure of the main player Akor Adams. The forward line needs time to re-adjust; Huali Jiannu performed well last season, not only ranking 8th in the league, but also reaching the UEFA Europa League finals. This season, Beñat San José takes over as coach, and his combat effectiveness cannot be underestimated.
Injuries and Updates: For Seaver, midfielder Alfon González is confirmed to be absent due to injury; Huali Jiannu's lineup is relatively complete, and the main player Álvaro García, who was injured at the end of the season, has been declared fully recovered and can line up.
Market pricing and handicap deduction: The current market implied probability of winning is about 40.9%, and the probability of a draw is as high as 30.1%. Both sides are in the period of adapting to the new coach's tactics and are expected to play conservatively in the first round. Data shows that Seaver has frequently scored small scores at home recently (the total number of home goals scored in 11 league games across the season is less than 3.5 goals, and 8 of the last 9 league games have been decided by one goal), while Huali Jiannu has a tight defense and has not conceded more than 1 goal in 8 consecutive official games across the season. In the market situation where there is no pure tie ([0]) in the handicap, the high area [2.5] fine has extremely high anti-risk ability and is the defensive asset with the highest confidence in this market. The second-choice Huali Jiannu was assigned [0/+0.5], and he has room to win half to all in a scenario where a draw is expected or the visiting team succeeds in a sneak attack.
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