Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
55.2%
Certus
54.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.9%
Settled
Korean Division 2 · 2026-08-16 18:30
· Certus
Gimpo FC vs Cheonan CityGimpo FC vs Cheonan City
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
The core configuration wins first, the second choice wins [1.5] Big
PrimaryHome✗Secondarymain [1.5] big—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this South Korean second division league match, Gimpo FC faces Cheonan City at home. Judging from the on-the-spot data and current situation in the 2026 season, this is a dialogue between the home team’s offensive recovery and the visiting team’s defense collapse:
Comparison between combat power and current situation: Gimpo FC currently ranks 7th in the league with 30 points. It only conceded 21 goals in the first 20 games of the season and has strong defensive discipline. The team defeated Chungbuk Cheongju 3-0 in the last round, ending the previous trend of consecutive draws, and their morale is high. On the other hand, Tianan City currently only has 20 points and has fallen to 13th place. It has recorded 1 and 4 losses in the past 5 league games, and it is difficult to win.
Loopholes in Tianan City’s defense line: Tianan City’s recent games have shown an extremely open situation, but the price is that the defense line is ineffective. They have conceded a total of 9 goals in the past 3 league games (2-3, 2-2, 3-4), with an average of 3 goals per game. The defense is easily penetrated by opponents.
Market Pricing and Expectations: The market prices the home win at 1.6 (implied probability 55.2%). Considering Gimpo FC's extremely high draw rate this season (9 draws in 20 games), this pricing shows the institution's deep bearish view of Cheonan City's poor recent situation. Gimpo FC is expected to take advantage of its home court advantage and the opponent's loose defense to score 2 goals or more and win the game.
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