Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
59.5%
Certus
54.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.2%
Settled
Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-08-16 13:00
· Certus
Marconi Stallions vs Sutherland SharksMarconi Stallions vs Sutherland Sharks
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
The Marconi Horse's home strength is stable, but the visiting team's Sharks' offensive power has picked up recently, with a large core configuration [2.5], and the second choice is the main [-0.5/-1].
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[-0.5/-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Current combat power and ranking
According to the latest data in 2026, the Marconi Stallions have performed strongly in the NPL New South Wales League and currently rank second in the standings with 28 points (9 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the first 12 rounds). The goal score is 25:10, and the home offense and defense are highly integrated. The visiting team Sutherland Sharks are temporarily ranked 8th with 16 points, but the team has recently launched a wave of 3 consecutive victories (the last 5 rounds are D L W W W), and the state has improved significantly.
2. Tactics and injury updates
The Sutherland Sharks have retained core players such as Nicholas Olsen in the 2026 season. In recent games, they have shown strong resistance to pressure and explosive power at the front, and have the counterattack confidence to threaten opponents on the road. The Marconi Stallions need to deal with the pressure of being targeted as a strong team. Although the defense is solid (only conceding 10 goals in the first 12 rounds), it is more difficult to completely shut down the opponent when the opponent's forward line is in hot condition.
3. Market pricing and handicap deduction
The implied probability of the home team winning the game is about 59.5% (corresponding to market pricing of 1.48), and the handicap is home [-0.5/-1], which shows that the organization is confident in the home team winning, but is relatively cautious about winning by more than two goals. Goal market pricing [2.5] The baseline market pricing are 1.7, indicating that the market has high expectations for the two sides to work together to produce more than 3 goals. Based on the recent offensive firepower of both sides, it is expected that it will be a game where the home team has the advantage but the away team has the ability to counterattack and score, and the probability of going for a big goal is high.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.