Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
51.0%
Certus
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.3%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-08-16 22:00
· Certus
Lyngby vs MidtjyllandLyngby vs Midtjylland
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] Large, second choice Asian handicap away [-0.5/-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[-0.5/-1]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
2026 Danish Superliga: Nimby vs Midirand
1. Combat strength and status (beginning of 2026 season)
Midilante has shown strong competitiveness at the beginning of the new season. It has maintained a complete victory in the first two rounds of the league and scored 5 goals. It is temporarily ranked third in the league. The overall operation efficiency of the team is excellent. Relatively speaking, Nimbi had a rough start. They only scored 1 and 2 losses in the first 3 games, and their defense was severely compromised (conceded 7 goals). They are currently ranked 11th. Nimbi's defense clearly exposed its shortcomings of loose organization when facing a team with strong firepower.
2. Lineup and impact of injuries
Midilante is currently facing certain injuries, including the absence of midfielders Ousmane Diao, Victor Bak and forward Júnior Brumado. Edward Chilufya is also doubtful due to illness. Although this will weaken its lineup depth to a certain extent, its forward team still has a dominant advantage against Nimbi, who has a weak defense. Nimbi's main goalkeeper Oskar Snorre is injured, and the defense is even worse.
3. Market implicit pricing and strategic configuration
The market opened at 1.73 (implied probability of about 51.0%), which is on the edge of the gray zone (<52%) in the direction of high confidence. Taking into account the hidden dangers of injuries in Midland's away games, there is a certain risk of volatility in blindly pursuing a single away win. However, the recent statistics of goals scored and lost by both sides have been highly active, with Nimbi conceding more than 2 goals per game, while Midilante has plenty of firepower, so the high goal size [2.5] pricing (1.53, expected hitting rate of more than 60%) is more defensive for investment and guarantees a winning rate. In the absence of a tie, goal size is the first choice for the core configuration.
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