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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market —

Certus 60.0%

—

Secondary

Market 68.1%

Certus 72.0%

+3.9%

Result

Market 36.8%

Certus 35.9%

-0.9%

Settled

Argentine Division 1 · 2026-08-17 01:58 · Certus

Sarmiento vs Huracan Sarmiento vs Huracan

Predicted 0-1

Actual 2-0

The risk of a draw is high, the core configuration is handicap [0], the defense is weak, the second choice [1.5/2] fine

Primary Guest[0] Secondary [2.5] Under Result Away Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

2.98

Market implied 33.6%

Draw

2.63

Market implied 38.0%

Away win

2.4

Market implied 41.7%

半場主客和

Home win

4.0

Market implied 25.0%

Draw

1.7

Market implied 58.8%

Away win

3.3

Market implied 30.3%

半場入球大細

[0.5/1]

Over

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

Under

1.75

Market implied 57.1%

[1/1.5]

Over

3.4

Market implied 29.4%

Under

1.26

Market implied 79.4%

[1.5]

Over

3.95

Market implied 25.3%

Under

1.19

Market implied 84.0%

入球大細

[1.5]

Over

1.6

Market implied 62.5%

Under

2.19

Market implied 45.7%

[1.5/2]

Over

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

Under

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

[2.5]

Over

2.88

Market implied 34.7%

Under

1.35

Market implied 74.1%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.8

Market implied 35.7%

主 [0.5] 細

1.37

Market implied 73.0%

客 [0.5] 大

2.5

Market implied 40.0%

客 [0.5] 細

1.46

Market implied 68.5%

客 [1.5] 大

8.5

Market implied 11.8%

客 [1.5] 細

1.03

Market implied 97.1%

球隊入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.55

Market implied 64.5%

主 [0.5] 細

2.29

Market implied 43.7%

主 [1.5] 大

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

主 [1.5] 細

1.22

Market implied 82.0%

客 [0.5] 大

1.44

Market implied 69.4%

客 [0.5] 細

2.58

Market implied 38.8%

客 [1.5] 大

3.2

Market implied 31.2%

客 [1.5] 細

1.29

Market implied 77.5%

讓球主客和

主[+1]

1.44

Market implied 69.4%

和[+1]

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

客[-1]

5.6

Market implied 17.9%

主[-1]

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

和[-1]

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

客[+1]

1.29

Market implied 77.5%

讓球

主[0]

2.09

Market implied 47.8%

客[0]

1.7

Market implied 58.8%

波膽

Home

1:0

5.7

2:0

12.0

2:1

10.5

3:0

35.0

3:1

35.0

3:2

40.0

4:0

100.0

4:1

80.0

4:2

150.0

5:0

400.0

5:1

400.0

5:2

600.0

Draw

0:0

4.8

1:1

5.5

2:2

18.0

3:3

100.0

Away

0:1

5.1

0:2

9.25

1:2

9.25

0:3

25.0

1:3

27.0

2:3

40.0

0:4

70.0

1:4

70.0

2:4

125.0

0:5

250.0

1:5

300.0

2:5

500.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

5.1

2:0

13.5

2:1

40.0

3:0

100.0

3:1

250.0

3:2

700.0

4:0

700.0

4:1

1000.0

4:2

3000.0

5:0

4000.0

5:1

5000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

1.85

1:1

7.5

2:2

125.0

3:3

2000.0

Away

0:1

3.95

0:2

11.0

1:2

35.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

150.0

2:3

600.0

0:4

500.0

1:4

800.0

2:4

2000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

4000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

5.2

Market implied 19.2%

主-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

主-客

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

和-主

6.0

Market implied 16.7%

和-和

3.3

Market implied 30.3%

和-客

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

客-主

40.0

Market implied 2.5%

客-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

客-客

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

總入球

0球

4.8

Market implied 20.8%

1球

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

2球

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

3球

4.55

Market implied 22.0%

4球

8.25

Market implied 12.1%

5球

18.0

Market implied 5.6%

6球

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

7+球

55.0

Market implied 1.8%

入球單雙

單

1.93

Market implied 51.8%

雙

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

第一隊入球

主

2.31

Market implied 43.3%

無

4.8

Market implied 20.8%

客

2.0

Market implied 50.0%

Recent form

Sarmiento

W W L L

Huracan

W D L W

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Sarmiento

奥林波俱乐部，一般稱為奧林普或布兰卡港奥林波，为阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯省布兰卡港市的一个体育俱乐部。该俱乐部主要有篮球队与足球队。

布兰卡港 · Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Founded 1910

Huracan

风神熊属是生存于新近纪的一类已灭绝的大熊猫，其化石发现于北美和东亚。与它们的以竹子为主食的现代近亲大熊猫不同，风神熊属是一类高度食肉的熊。

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

This match is the fifth round of the 2026 Argentine League A (Autumn). According to the latest Internet search data, the visiting team Huracán showed strong defensive resilience in the first four rounds, conceding only 2 goals and scoring 7 points. In the last round, they defeated the powerful San Lorenzo 2-0 and are in good condition. Although the home team Sarmiento won in the last round, they conceded as many as 8 goals in the first four rounds, and there were major hidden dangers in the defense. In terms of lineup, both sides have main players missing due to injuries (such as C. Zabala of Shamientu and F. Waller of the Hurricanes). It is expected that the midfield competition in this game will be anxious and conservative.

Judging from the market pricing structure, the implied probability of an away win (36.8%) is slightly higher than that of a home win, but the probability of a draw is as high as 33.6%, reflecting that the institution's confidence in the Hurricanes to win all three points as a guest has not formed an absolute advantage. Goal Size [2.5] The low goal score (1.35) strongly suggests that this will be a boring game. Taking into account the Hurricanes' solid defensive system and Shamientu's defensive holes, the Hurricanes have the capital to be invincible on the road. Therefore, under the extremely high risk of a draw, it is most reasonable to use the Asian handicap's tie handicap (away [0]) as the core defensive asset, which can not only lock in higher expectations of away wins, but also effectively avoid the boring risk of losing money.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Sarmiento vs Huracan Sarmiento vs Huracan

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

讓球主客和

讓球

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

Sarmiento

Huracan

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis