Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
61.2%
Certus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.8%
Result
Market
71.6%
Certus
62.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.1%
Settled
Saudi King's Cup · 2026-08-19 00:15
· Certus
Al Najma vs Al IttihadAl Najma vs Al Ittihad
Predicted0-3
Actual0-3
核心配置 客[-1/-1.5],次選 [2.5] 大
PrimaryAway[-1/-1.5]✓Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the top 32 match of the Saudi King's Cup in the 2026-27 season. Ainajima, currently in the Saudi Arabian League (FDL), will play at home against the Saudi Arabian League (SPL) giant Al-Ittihad. There is a huge gap between the two teams in terms of overall player value and league level.
Tactics and injury information:
According to the latest search data in August 2026, Al-Ittihad has recently faced a wave of injuries in the midfield and backfield. Midfielders Hamed Al-Ghamdi and Mahamadou Doumbia suffered serious cruciate ligament injuries, and defender Saad Al-Mousa was also absent due to an ankle injury. Although there is a high possibility of rotation for the visiting team in the early stages of the King's Cup, Al-Ittihad's frontcourt attack group composed of top foreign players such as Moussa Diaby, Aouar and En-Nasri still has the ability to destructively reduce the dimensionality of the defenses of lower-level teams. The home team Ainajima is expected to adopt extreme low defense in an attempt to slow down the pace of the game, but the huge gap in physical fitness and personal ability will often be completely revealed in the second half.
Market pricing and handicap bias:
The market's implicit pricing gives up to 71.6% support for away wins (away wins 1.23), while the 2.5-goal goal range is as low as 1.51, showing that the agency's intention to prevent the away team from breaking through the handicap with a big win is extremely obvious. The Asian handicap is relatively shallow [-1/-1.5] for the away team, partly due to the market's assessment of the away team's injuries and cup rotation. However, under the pressure of pure hard power, this handicap still has ample room for entry. Under the characteristics of the cup, once a weak team concedes a goal early, it is easy to cause a continuous collapse.
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