Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
53.1%
Certus
47.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.3%
Settled
Saudi King's Cup · 2026-08-19 02:00
· Certus
Al Faisaly FC vs NEOM SCAl Faisaly FC vs NEOM SC
Predicted1-2
Actual1-3
核心配置 [2.5] 大，次選 客 [1.5] 大
Primary[2.5] Over✓Secondary客 [1.5] Over—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Lineup and fighting spirit (online verification): Both sides are Saudi Professional League (top league) teams in the 2026-27 season, and there is no obvious level difference (the lower and upper defaults prompted by the system deviate from the true classification). Neom SC spent heavily this summer to introduce top European foreign players such as Lacazette and Benrahma. They defeated Alfeha 2-1 in the first round and have strong destructive power in the frontcourt. Although the home team Feisali FC lost 2-4 to the defending champion Saudi Arabian Al-Hilal in the first round, foreign players Bongonda and Mendy both scored goals, showing good counterattack efficiency.
Injury Information: Neom SC midfielder Abbas Al-Hassan is continuously injured due to a torn cruciate ligament, which may cause certain hidden dangers to the visiting team's midfield defensive coverage. With the expectation of cup rotation, the tacit understanding of the defense lines of both sides needs to be put into question.
Data backcasting and handicap logic: The market gives a price of 1.66 away wins (about 53.1% deducted). Although Neom’s star lineup is recognized, due to the uncertainty of the potential rotation in the cup and the offensive power of the home team, the Edge that can directly win away wins is smaller. On the contrary, under the baseline of goal size [2.5], the conditions for hitting a big ball are sufficient, which is highly consistent with the open style of play of both sides. The available handicap for this game does not include ties with Asian handicap. The first choice of defense turns to offensive assets. The core recommendation is [2.5]. The second choice Neom has scored more than 1.5 goals for a single team.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
