Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.7%
Secondary
Market
59.6%
Aestus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.4%
Result
Market
65.4%
Aestus
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.7%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-07-26 20:00
· Aestus
Brommapojkarna vs HammarbyBrommapojkarna vs Hammarby
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration is away win, second choice [3.5] Detailed Echo model predicted score 1:2
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Combat Strength Comparison: The visiting team Hammarby has excellent ball control and overall system strength in the Swedish Super League. Facing the middle and lower-tier Bromma Pokana, frontcourt pressure and offensive and defensive transitions will constitute a significant marginal advantage. The home team Bromma Pokana is limited by the lack of stability on the defensive end. When facing strong teams, they usually adopt low-post contraction tactics to limit the opponent's positional battle advancement.
Market Pricing and Data Verification: The market’s latest opening price for away win is 1.35 (implied probability after de-extraction is about 65.4%), while the goal size opening [3.5] ball line, low area (thin) pricing is only 1.55, which shows that the market highly recognizes Hammarby’s ability to win away games, but has a relatively conservative attitude towards the explosive power of ultra-high scores throughout the game. After comprehensive evaluation of the model, the customer win rate is estimated to be 71%, with a positive marginal value (Edge) of approximately 5.6% compared to market pricing.
Risk and Strategy Configuration: Since the injured lineup and specific ranking details cannot be double-verified immediately due to network search restrictions, the upper limit of the preferred configuration weight is adjusted to 35% according to the risk control model specifications. The final configuration was chosen to take "customer victory" as the main direction, and use "[3.5] Fine" on the same line and in the same direction as the secondary defensive asset.
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