Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.1%
Secondary
Market
40.4%
Aestus
68.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+27.6%
Result
Market
65.9%
Aestus
67.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.1%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-07-26 22:30
· Aestus
GAIS vs HalmstadsGAIS vs Halmstads
Predicted2-0
Actual1-1
Core configuration for the handicap home/away draw [-1], secondary pick [3.5] Small, echoing expectations of a strong clean sheet for the home team
PrimaryMain[-1]—Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Swedish Super League match, GAIS, ranked 8th, will face Halmstads BK, ranked 16th at the bottom.
According to the latest data retrieved from the Internet for the 2026 season, Gals currently has 19 points. He has performed extremely well at home in Gamla Ullevi this season, winning 5 of the past 6 home games, and his defensive end is quite solid. In contrast, Hamstads are currently deep in the relegation zone with only 6 points. They have recently suffered 5 consecutive away defeats and are full of loopholes on the defensive end (conceding 28 goals in 13 games).
Although Garth faces potential injuries to Kevin Holmen, Gustav Lundgren and defender Erko Tougjas in the lineup, and may be forced to rotate, facing Hamstads with extremely poor away ability and lack of attack, this weakens the fundamentals of being unable to shake the main victory. The market price of the main win is as low as 1.25 (the implied winning rate is about 70.3% after removing the margin), which fully reflects the strength gap between the two sides. Since the pure outcome handicap return is too low, and the asset allocation market is highly concentrated on 2-0 and 1-0, it is recommended to use "handicap home and away and home [-1]" to gain the advantage of the home team winning by more than two goals, and use a high-forgiveness [3.5] goal handicap as the second choice.
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