Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Secondary
Market
55.4%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Result
Market
47.6%
Aestus
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-07-26 22:30
· Aestus
Malmo vs ElfsborgMalmo vs Elfsborg
Predicted2-1
Actual1-2
Core setup for home win, second pick [2.5] Big, echoing offensive advantage and 2-1 score prediction
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Match Dynamic Analysis In the 16th round of the Swedish Super League, Mamo played against Elfsborg at home. Ma Mo has always had strong control of the ball and control of the rhythm at home, and his high-position pressing in the frontcourt can continue to create secondary offensive opportunities in the frontcourt. Ivesborg is known for its strong physical confrontation and efficient rapid transition counterattacks, and tends to be defensive in away games.
Market Pricing and Data Deconstruction The market opened the horse model with a home win of 1.73 (implied winning rate after removing the margin is about 51.0%), a draw of 3.55, and an away win of 3.65. The baseline of goal size falls in the 2.5-goal high zone (Over 1.67). The market is obviously biased towards high-scoring goals, and the highest implied rankings are 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0. Based on the recent offensive and defensive rhythms of the two teams, Ma Mo has a more solid home court advantage and is expected to break the tug-of-war with a 2-1 home victory.
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