Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
40.1%
Aestus
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.4%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-07-26 23:00
· Aestus
KFUM Oslo vs MoldeKFUM Oslo vs Molde
Predicted1-2
Actual2-4
Core allocation [2.5] is large, while defensive asset allocation [0] ensures fund safety
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This Norwegian Super League match is between KFUM Oslo and Modi at home. From the perspective of market implicit pricing, although Modi is a guest, he still has a slight advantage (away win 2.20, implied probability of about 40.1%), home win falls at 2.63 (33.6%), and draw is 3.35 (26.3%).
1. Offensive and defensive rhythm and goal expectation (core highlights)
The market sets the 2.5-goal goal line at "high zone 1.65 / low zone 2.10", which shows that there is a strong consensus at the data level that there will be multiple goals in this game. In Bodan's prediction, 1:1 (Rank 1), 1:2 (Rank 2) and 2:1/0:1 are all among the best, and the market pricing of 0:0 at halftime are as high as 3.20, indicating that the possibility of breaking through the defense in the first half of the game is extremely high, and the rhythm of the entire game tends to be open.
2. Lineup and Intelligence Risk Management
Due to on-the-spot injuries and specific points ranking data not being fully injected, the model adopted the market anchored model (market_anchored) for risk control and lowered the confidence rating to medium. Considering that Modi's away win rate failed to exceed the 52% red line threshold, and the probability of a draw (26.3%) has a certain risk of diversion, the pure three directions (result) of victory and defeat should not be the first choice for heavy positions.
3. Asset allocation logic
Core configuration (Primary): Goal size [2.5] Large. Exactly consistent with the score estimate of 1:2, enjoying the strong support of the market.
Defensive Assets (Secondary): Handicap Away[0] (Asian Handicap). Under the premise that Modi is expected to have a slight advantage, use the tie plate to defend against the risk of a draw.
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