Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.9%
Secondary
Market
50.3%
Aestus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.7%
Result
Market
70.9%
Aestus
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.9%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-07-26 23:00
· Aestus
Sandefjord vs Bodo GlimtSandefjord vs Bodo Glimt
Predicted1-2
Actual0-3
Core setup is away win, secondary pick [3.5] Detailed echoes 1:2 control prediction
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Norwegian Super League match, Sindivzot will face the powerful rival Podukilint at home. Judging from market data and fundamental positioning, as the top club in the league, Podukirint's overall strength and lineup depth have significantly suppressed Sindivzot. The market offers an ultra-low discounted price of 1.24 customer wins. After removing the margin, the implied probability of customer wins is as high as 70.9%. The financial side has a high degree of consensus that Poduki Linte will win all three points as a guest.
In terms of handicap data, the total goals baseline is set at [3.5] goals (high 1.86 | low 1.84). However, observing the market's top three popular bets with the highest implied probabilities, they are 1:2, 0:2 and 1:3 respectively. The total number of goals scored in 1:2 and 0:2 does not exceed 3 goals. At the tactical level, Podukirint often focuses on controlling the rhythm of the game when away, and may not blindly expand the formation after taking the lead; while Sindivzot will definitely adopt a deep defensive strategy when facing a strong team, and the risk of a sharp scoreline is relatively controllable.
Based on a comprehensive evaluation, Podukirinte is the first choice to win as an away team; the second choice combination [3.5] is fine, which can perfectly cover the mainstream winning tracks such as 1:2 and 0:2, forming a combination with both winning rate and risk defense.
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