Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Secondary
Market
61.5%
Aestus
63.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.5%
Result
Market
56.9%
Aestus
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-07-26 23:00
· Aestus
Sarpsborg vs Ham-KamSarpsborg vs Ham-Kam
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
Core lineup for home win, second pick [2.5] big, echoing a 2:1 score prediction
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
According to the latest market pricing and data structure of the Norwegian Super League, this matchup between Sapsburg and Hampka at home shows a significant home team dominance pattern:
Market Pricing and Winning Rate Anchoring: Home and guest and the market indicate home win 1.55, draw 3.95, away win 4.25. After removing the margin, the implied probability of home win reaches 56.9%. The model takes into account the home firepower and overall combat power gap, and gives an estimated probability of 62.0% for the home team to win (bringing a relative marginal advantage of +5.1% Edge).
Offensive data and score structure: The baseline of the game's big and small goals is set at 2.5 goals, and the market pricing of the high zone (Over 2.5) are as low as 1.50, showing that the market has strong expectations for high scores. In terms of wave guts, 2:1 (6.9) and 1:1 (7.5) are the top two favorites, which proves that both sides have the ability to score goals, but the home team is more suppressive.
Risk Control and Tactical Allocation: Since part of the injury information in this game is anchored and calibrated based on market market pricing, the strategy adopts "Main Victory" as the core main asset, supplemented by "[2.5] Big" as the second configuration with high correlation.
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