Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
51.8%
Aestus
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.4%
Settled
Brazilian Division 2 · 2026-07-28 06:30
· Aestus
Clube de Regatas Brasil vs Vila NovaClube de Regatas Brasil vs Vila Nova
Predicted1-0
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, with CRB as the secondary choice for a tie defense.
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and event layout:
This Brazilian Serie B match is played by CRB at home against Villanova. Observed from the market's implicit pricing and waveguide distribution structure, this game presents an extremely dull defensive pattern.
Offensive and firepower calculation:
The market [2.5] is priced as low as 1.74 in the large and small low area (thin ball), and the top four waveguides are concentrated at 1:0 (5.8), 1:1 (6.3), 2:0 (7.0) and 0:0 (8.5). This reflects that the two teams tend to see-saw in the midfield and push low-risk in terms of offensive and defensive rhythm, and their ability to create high-quality shooting opportunities is limited.
Directional advantages and defense considerations:
CRB has a 51.8% implied probability of home victory, and the home court has a basic advantage. However, the overall draw attribute of the Brazilian League B is strong (the market draw probability is 26.7%). When the offensive conversion rate is not high, the risk of single asset allocation on the main winner is relatively high.
Configuration strategy:
Due to the strong consistency between the wave gallbladder and the large and small lines, the total number of goals scored $\le 2$ is significantly better than that of a single direction. Therefore, the first choice is [2.5] Fine as the core configuration; the second choice is to cooperate with Handicap Master[0] (Asian Handicap Tie Handicap) as a defensive asset to lock in the refund mechanism for leakage.
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