Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.8%
Secondary
Market
50.0%
Ordo
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.0%
Result
Market
58.8%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.8%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-30 06:00
· Ordo
Vasco da Gama vs Medellín became independentVasco da Gama vs Medellín became independent
Predicted2-0
Actual1-0
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] under, estimated Vasco to win 2:0 at home
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup ideas:
In this Copa Sudamericana match, Brazilian team Vasco da Gama plays at home against Colombian team Independiente Medellín. Huasco has always had a strong pressing rhythm and wing-advancing ability in home games, and its defensive system at home is quite strict; on the other hand, Medellín Independiente often adopts a low defense (5-4-1 / 4-5-1) strategy in away games in cup games, focusing on defensive counterattacks and set-piece sneak attacks, and its away firepower is relatively weak.
Market Pricing and Actuarial Calibration:
The market offers a home win of 1.50 (implied winning rate after removing margins of about 58.8%), and the handicap is as deep as half a goal to one goal. The baseline for goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the high and low zones are tied (1.85 / 1.85). Taking into account Medellin's independent guest strategy of defending instead of attacking, Huasco may face the problem of high-intensity position breakthroughs under the dominance of ball control. The favorites are concentrated at 1:0 and 2:0, and the overall game shows the rhythm of Vasco's small victory and zero seal.
Configuration suggestions:
Vasco has a winning rate of 60%, and the main victory is the most stable core asset; the secondary selection [2.5] is detailed to hedge against possible stalemates in the critical stage.
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