Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.4%
Secondary
Market
72.7%
Ordo
60.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.3%
Result
Market
72.7%
Ordo
60.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.3%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-30 08:30
· Ordo
RB Bragantino vs The Scholar's Potting Pavilion is crystalRB Bragantino vs The Scholar's Potting Pavilion is crystal
Predicted3-0
Actual1-0
Core setup is [2.5] high, second pick is a handicap home/away draw [-1], estimated home team to win 3:0.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Tactics and confrontation pattern
In this Copa Sudamericana match, the Brazilian top team Red Bull Barragantino will face the Peruvian team Potín Crystal at home. Red Bull Barragantino continues the Red Bull system's typical high-position pressing and fast wing path, and the home offensive pressure is extremely strong; Pottinger Crystal often uses low-level retreat and defensive counterattack tactics in away games. The defense line is prone to regional leakage and foul risks in the face of high-intensity impact.
2. Market pricing and data calibration
The latest implied pricing in the market is 1.21 for the home win (the home win rate after removing the water is 72.7%), which shows that the market highly affirms the disparity in league level and lineup strength between the two teams. The baseline for total goals is set at 2.5 goals, and the high-goal zone is priced at only 1.55, reflecting the market's strong expectations for the home team to start a multi-goal victory.
3. Risk assessment and configuration strategy
Taking into account the variables of the cup competition format and on-the-spot lineup, the main winner alone wins 1.21. The water level is too low and the investment value is limited. In view of the strong firepower output of the home team at home and the pressure-bearing ability of the visiting team's defense in away games, [2.5] Big (self-rated winning rate 62%) is the most stable core allocation asset; the second choice is to match handicap home and away and home[-1] (market pricing 1.78), which corresponds to a 3:0 victory for the home team.
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