Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.2%
Secondary
Market
14.8%
Ordo
61.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+46.5%
Result
Market
14.8%
Ordo
61.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+46.5%
Settled
Australian NPL - Victoria · 2026-07-31 17:30
· Ordo
Bentleigh Greens vs Oakleigh CannonsBentleigh Greens vs Oakleigh Cannons
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Strength Comparison
As the top power in the league, the Oakleigh Cannons have significantly better overall lineup depth, offensive conversion rate and high-position pressing intensity than the Bentleigh Greens. The Bentley Green Army has exposed many problems on the defensive end this season. It lacks the ability to withstand pressure when facing the front-line team's rib penetration, and it is difficult to withstand the visiting team's continuous wave of attacks.
Market Pricing and Data Verification
Win and Loss Pricing: The market gives an away win of 1.20 (implied winning rate of 73.3% after removing water), showing that the away team has an overwhelming advantage; a home win of 9.0 reflects that the home team has a very low chance of upset.
Goal Index: The "big" with a total of 2.5 goals scored a low price of 1.60, which is significantly lower than the "small" of 2.19, indicating that the market has strong expectations for 3 or more goals in this game. The top three in the standings (0:2, 0:1, 0:3) are also highly tilted towards the away team winning with a clean sheet or a high score.
Asset Allocation Logic
The away win direction is clear, but the pure win return of 1.20 is low. Combining the low goal index and the visiting team's firepower advantage, [2.5] Big has the best risk-return ratio and is listed as the core configuration; the second option is to match the handicap home and away and Away[-1] to cover the away team's expected win difference of more than two goals.
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