Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
33.0%
Ordo
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+24.6%
Result
Market
33.0%
Ordo
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+24.6%
Settled
Australian NPL - Victoria · 2026-07-31 18:30
· Ordo
Preston Lions vs Green GullyPreston Lions vs Green Gully
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
Core configuration is [2.5], with a solid direction for a home win as the secondary pick
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Australian National League Victoria Division match, the Preston Lions will face Glencourt at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the implied probability of the main victory after deducting the margin is as high as 68.3% (market market pricing 1.29), showing a clear gap in combat power and home court control.
In terms of goal data, the price of the 2.5-goal high zone reaches 1.56, and the implied probability of hitting a big goal is about 62%, reflecting the high goal expectations of the two teams in the confrontation of styles. The visiting team Gelenguli is limited by the lack of pressure on the defensive line, and the risk of conceding goals in the away game is relatively high; while the home team's offensive efficiency is stable and the overall rhythm is positive.
Combining the tactical level and data premium, the core assets of this game focus on the direction of the goal, and are equipped with auxiliary equipment in the main winning direction.
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