Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
25.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.0%
Ordo
39.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-01 01:00
· Ordo
South Africa Women vs Cote d'Ivoire WomenSouth Africa Women vs Cote d'Ivoire Women
Predicted1-0
Actual2-2
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Market Pricing Structure: In this Women's Africa Cup of Nations match, the market's implied winning rate is 42.0% for the home team, 28.8% for a draw, and 29.2% for the away team. The probability of the main win falls into the data gray area of 42%–52%, and the implied rate of a draw is relatively high, and there is high uncertainty in the steering wheel.
Tactical and Total Goal Estimation: Both sides tend to adopt more cautious defensive counterattack tactics in the cup elimination/group stage. The benchmark for goal size is set at 2.5 goals. The high zone price (large) is as high as 2.08, and the low zone (fine) is only 1.66 (a winning rate of 58%–60%). The most popular options in the market are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, pointing to a low-scoring defensive battle.
Risk Control and Strategy Selection: In view of the lack of certainty in the direction of victory and defeat, based on the decision tree, it is not appropriate to use home-and-away draw or handicap home-and-away draw as the first choice. The most robust executable asset is [2.5] Fine; the directional configuration uses Asian Handicap Main[0] as the second choice, providing a water refund defense in a draw situation.
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