Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.2%
Secondary
Market
59.6%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.6%
Result
Market
59.6%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.6%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-08-01 09:00
· Ordo
Puebla vs GuadalajaraPuebla vs Guadalajara
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] high, second pick away win, model estimates score 1-2.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This Mexican Super League match pits Puebla against Guadalajara (Chivas) at home. From the perspective of market pricing and combat power fundamentals, the visiting team Guadalajara has a clear advantage. The market gives a low support of 1.48 away wins, and the implied winning rate is close to 60%.
tactical and offensive evaluation: Puebla's defense has lacked stability recently and is prone to conversion errors when facing pressing teams; Guadalajara maintains strong offensive creativity and xG output in the away game.
Goal over/under handicap structure: The market sets the goal baseline at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (big goal) gives a low water protection of 1.60, which shows that the agency has extremely high confidence in scoring a high score in this game. It is expected that Guadalajara can seize the offensive opportunity to score, while Puebla has a certain ability to counterattack and sneak attacks at home.
Allocation Strategy: In view of the fact that the away win has been highly digested in the market, and the handicap handicap [-1] has the potential risk of winning by one goal, [2.5] Big has shown a higher winning rate and stability, and is listed as the core first-pick asset, and the second choice is the away win direction.
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