Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
52.2%
Ordo
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.8%
Result
Market
37.7%
Ordo
37.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.4%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-08-01 11:00
· Ordo
Juarez vs Pumas UNAMJuarez vs Pumas UNAM
Predicted2-1
Actual1-5
Core setup mainly [0] Flat Defense, secondary choice [2.5] Large
PrimaryMain[0]—Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
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Pumas UNAM is a football club in Mexico City, the capital of Mexico. The National Autonomous University Club is the representative team of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, the largest university in Mexico. Its home stadium is located at the Olympic Stadium in University City. The name PUMAS is taken from the Spanish "Puma", which is also reflected in its team emblem.
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Mexican Super League match (2026-08-01), Zuares will face Pumas at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the home win rate is 2.34, the draw rate is 3.15, and the away win rate is 2.58. The implied home win probability is only about 37.7%, showing a standard balance of power gray area pattern. The three probabilities of victory, draw and loss are highly dispersed, and there is no clear data barrier for unilateral victory or defeat.
Tactical and handicap actuarial analysis:
Directional Defense Priority: When the probability of the main victory is less than 40% and the implied probability of a draw reaches 28.0%, the risk of going straight to the main victory is too high. Asia's handicap is "Main [0]" (tie handicap), which can play a defensive mechanism of refunding the money when the two sides shake hands and make a draw. It is currently the most certain executable asset.
Total goals trend: The data premium baseline is set at [2.5] goals, and the high area (Over) pricing of 1.77 shows the market's preference for open attacks. Combining the implied rankings (1:1, 1:0, 2:1) with the offensive and defensive characteristics of the two teams, the home team has scoring efficiency at home but has limited zero-block ability. It is expected that the overall result of the game will be biased towards a weak victory of 2:1.
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