Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.9%
Ordo
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.2%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-08-01 11:00
· Ordo
Atletico San Luis vs TijuanaAtletico San Luis vs Tijuana
Predicted2-1
Actual0-0
Core setup [2.5] is large, then pick main [0] defense to avoid draws and go down
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Mexican Super League match, Atlético San Luis will host Dizuana at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the implied probability of home win is only 39.9%, and the guest win is also 33.3%, which shows that the overall combat power of both sides is in the gray area of balance, the probability distribution of the three wins and losses is extremely scattered, and the certainty of one-sided victory is low.
At the tactical level, St. Louis Athletic Club is used to proactively opening up space when playing at home, but the defense is prone to transition gaps during the transition stage; Dizuana has excellent counterattack and transition capabilities, and the past confrontations between the two teams have been highly offensive. The market gives a significant bias towards the high zone of 1.69 on the total goals [2.5] line, echoing the popular options (1:1, 2:1), reflecting the market's high consensus on the openness of the game and the multi-goal trend.
Since the confidence in the direction of victory is limited by the 42% gray zone threshold, according to the decision-making system, the best configuration in this game should avoid purely directional targets and lock in goals and assets with a higher probability of profit; the second option is to cooperate with the home team's weak home tactical dominance and use the Asian Handicap Master [0] as a draw defense.
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