Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Secondary
Market
59.5%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.9%
Result
Market
59.5%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.9%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-08-01 01:00
· Ordo
Valerenga vs Ham-KamValerenga vs Ham-Kam
Predicted2-1
Actual0-3
Core allocation [3.5] Detailed, second choice home win hedging risk
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup situation:
Vallarunga has shown stable control of the market in the Norwegian Super League this season. The home offensive organization is mainly based on ball control and wing attack and defense transitions; the visiting team Xianka adopts typical defensive counterattack tactics. The away combat style is cautious and shrinking. The offensive end relies heavily on set pieces and high-altitude secondary strikes. The overall ability to proactively create absolute opportunities is relatively limited.
Data and market pricing bias:
The market has set a high premium benchmark line of 3.5 goals for this game. However, the market pricing of fine goals (Under 3.5) are as low as 1.65, showing that the actuarial model has doubts about high-scoring attacks. The main win is 1.48, with an implied winning rate of 59.5%, and the asset allocation market pricing are highly anchored at 2:1 and 2:0. Although Vallarunga can dominate, it is difficult to easily score a big victory in the face of Xianca's low defense. The situation is more inclined to the home team's control of the game and a small victory. [3.5] Fine products have the highest safety margin and revenue confidence.
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