Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.6%
Secondary
Market
56.7%
Ordo
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Result
Market
63.4%
Ordo
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.6%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-08-02 00:00
· Ordo
Start vs VikingStart vs Viking
Predicted0-2
Actual0-3
Core setup is away win, second choice [3.5] Fine hedging defense
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
1. Competitiveness and Market Pricing Assessment
In this Norwegian league match, Viking (the away team) held an overwhelming advantage in overall strength, squad depth, and offensive and defensive efficiency. The market set an extremely low bid of 1.39 for away wins, with an implied win rate of 63.4% after the drawdown. Both market funds and actuarial models highly recognize the away team's win rate.
2. Handicap and Goal Score Trends
The under-under baseline opened above 3.5 balls, but the under-zone was priced at just 1.63, indicating that institutions are cautious about high scores. The top three implied correct scores in the market are 1:2, 0:2, and 0:1, with total goals precisely converged in the 1–3 goal range. Starbucks is expected to adopt a low-block defense at home against a strong opponent, with the pace of the game dominated by the away team.
3. Configuration Strategy
Viking has established its directionality, directly allocating Kesheng as its core asset; Supplemented by playing a stable **[3.5] fine ** as a second-tier hedging, the estimated score is 0:2.
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