Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.9%
Secondary
Market
59.5%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.5%
Result
Market
59.5%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.5%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-08-02 23:00
· Ordo
Molde vs SarpsborgMolde vs Sarpsborg
Predicted2-1
Actual3-3
Core lineup [3.5] is narrow, with Modi as the second pick for a 'home win', estimated score 2:1.
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactical and institutional pricing analysis:
Modi holds home advantage in this Norwegian league league match, with the market giving a 1.48 implied probability of a home win (about 59.5% after margin adjustment). However, the bookmakers have set a high standard of 3.5 goals on under, and the low (under) market pricing are as low as 1.74, indicating a conservative stance on capital and pricing toward an extremely open attacking game.
Looking at the implied correct score rankings, the top three favorites are 2:1 (7.0), 1:1 (8.75), and 2:0 (9.5), with total goals concentrated in the 2–3 goal range. Modi excels in ball control and tempo management when leading, while Sarpsburg often employs pressing from midfield and backfield and counterattacking tactics when playing away against strong opponents.
Comparing overall strength and handicaps, Modi is expected to win at home in line with his strength base. However, considering the over/under opens up to 3.5 balls and the low box is tightly defended, [3.5] under is highly certain to play and is the most stable executable asset.
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