Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
37.6%
Ordo
36.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.3%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-08-02 09:00
· Ordo
Club Leon vs PachucaClub Leon vs Pachuca
Predicted1-2
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Mexican Primeira Liga match, León hosted Pachuca. The latest market pricing shows a home win of 2.50, a draw of 3.25, and an away win of 2.35. After asset allocation on the margin, the implied win rates are Home win 35.3% | Draw 27.2% | Away win 37.6%. Both sides' win rates in all three directions are below 38%, forming an extremely evenly matched "gray market pricing zone," with the market not clearly showing a one-sided bias.
The tactical and market structure analysis is as follows:
Directional Defense Priority: When win rates are spread and the win rate cap is only about 37.6%, directly setting up the win-loss direction (Home/Away/Handicap Home/Away Draw) is highly risky. According to the asset allocation decision tree, these evenly matched matches should avoid the win-loss three-way handicap and shift main funds toward the over/under (goals) or Asian handicap [0]** defense.
Over-Ball Space: The data premium baseline is set at 2.5 balls, with the high (over) price at 1.72 (implied a play probability of about 58.1%). The market holds high expectations for both teams to develop offensive and defensive tempos and tear apart their defenses. The two teams have always had high xG and transition speed in the Mexican Super League, with a 2.5-goal over-goal probability significantly higher than the one-sided win rate.
Overall, this match is centered around the highest confidence (58%) of [2.5] big, with Away[0] (Pachuca draw) as the secondary choice to hedge against draw risk.
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