Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.8%
Secondary
Market
53.1%
Ordo
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.4%
Result
Market
56.1%
Ordo
49.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.8%
Settled
CONCACAF U20 Championship · 2026-08-02 04:00
· Ordo
Canada U20 vs Jamaica U20Canada U20 vs Jamaica U20
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
Core setup favors home win, secondary pick [2.5] is large, and the model predicts Canada U20 will win 2-1
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This U20 CONCACAF Championship features Canada U20 versus Jamaica U20. In-depth evaluation combining market pricing with tactical models:
System and Overall Strength: Canada U20 has a more systematic youth training structure, with advantages in possession and playmaking tactics in the midfield and forward, as well as in positional attack tactics; Jamaica U20 mainly relied on tough physical contact and quick attacks down the wings, but their overall defensive organization was prone to cracks under continuous pressing.
Market Pricing and Probability Calibration: The market suggests Canada U20 to win at home at 1.57 (implied win rate of about 56.1% after margin reduction), 3.50 for a draw, and 4.70 for an away win, accurately reflecting the gap in strength between the teams. The total goals scored target is set at 2.5 goals (high zone 1.74), with the most likely score-correct scores at 1:0, 1:1, and 2:1, indicating that while the market expects Canada to have a higher chance of winning, the possibility of counterattacks on the defense cannot be ruled out.
Tactical Hedging and Deployment Strategies: The second half of youth matches experience significant fluctuations in fitness and focus, with relatively high openness. With possession control, Canada U20 has a home win rate surpassing the 55% threshold, making them the highest confidence asset; The second best combination is [2.5] to cover common 2-1 and other offensive scores.
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