Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.9%
Secondary
Market
52.7%
Ordo
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Result
Market
60.6%
Ordo
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.9%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-03 04:00
· Ordo
Mali women's national football team vs Cape Verde women's national football teamMali women's national football team vs Cape Verde women's national football team
Predicted2-0
Actual3-2
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] under, estimated score 2-0.
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Squad Structure: Mali women's football has strong physical competitiveness and wing impact within the African women's football system, with relatively rich experience in major tournaments; Although Cape Verde Women have improved in recent years, their overall squad depth and ball control under intense defensive pressure remain somewhat lacking. Cape Verde Women are expected to adopt a low-pitched defensive strategy in an away match, attempting to squeeze Mali's scoring space.
Market Pricing and Handicap Structure: The latest implied price gives Mali Women a home win at 1.45 (about 60.6% probability after margin adjustment), 3.7 for a draw, and 5.6 for an away win. The total goals scored baseline is set at 2.5 goals, with over 1.95 and unders 1.75, indicating strong market favoritism toward a low-score stalemate. The top three high-frequency combinations in the asset allocation market are 1:0 (5.4), 2:0 (5.9), and 1:1 (7.0), aligning with the low score strategy.
Risk Assessment and Configuration Recommendations: As a Women's Cup competition, both sides tend to approach cautiously and probing early in the game, with a higher probability of a dull first half. Mali women's team has the highest probability of controlling the tempo and taking the lead due to their superior strength; However, with defensive tactics restraining them, it was difficult to score many goals in total. The core setup is set on a home win for Mali women, supplemented by [2.5] thin as a secondary hedging protection.
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