Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
46.8%
Ordo
42.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.1%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-08-03 07:00
· Ordo
Utah Royals Women vs Portland Thorns Women's TeamUtah Royals Women vs Portland Thorns Women's Team
Predicted2-1
Actual5-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this match of the Women's American Professional League (NWSL), the Utah Royals hosted the Portland Thorns Women's Team. According to the latest implied market prices, home win is 1.87 (implied win rate 46.8%), draw is 3.65 (24.0%), and away win is 3.00 (29.2%). The home win rate falls in the 42%–52% gray zone, indicating high uncertainty in the three directions, making home wins unsuitable as the top priority core asset.
Based on goal data and handicap structure analysis, goals high [2.5] high is given an extremely low market pricing of 1.55 by the market (with a 60.5% probability after margin adjustment), and the top three favorites are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0 respectively, indicating strong market expectations for both teams' attacking and goal counts. The Utah Royals have an open home style, while the Portland Thorns possess efficient transitions and counterattack capabilities. Overall, this game is expected to feature an aggressive offensive contest, with a total score of over 2.5 goals scored in the game being more certain than the outcome of the game. In terms of setup, [2.5] Big ** is the top choice, and Handicap Home [0]** is used as a runaway defense.
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