Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Secondary
Market
66.8%
Ordo
56.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.0%
Result
Market
66.8%
Ordo
56.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.0%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-04 01:00
· Ordo
Djurgardens vs Vasteras SKDjurgardens vs Vasteras SK
Predicted2-0
Actual6-0
Core configuration [3.5] Fine, secondary pick gives a handicap home-away draw Home [-1]
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactical and Data Structure Assessment:
In this Swedish Allsvenskan match, Djurgåtens hosted Västras. According to the latest market pricing (home win 1.32, win rate about 66.8% without margin financing), Djurgården holds an overwhelming advantage in overall strength, roster depth, and home-court control. The visiting team Västras is positioned in the lower mid-table of the league, with limited ability to handle pressure and counterattack defensively when away from home.
Market Balance and High/Low Zone Premium Analysis:
The market offered a baseline of 3.5 balls for the under-hole, but the low (small) was priced as low as 1.68 (equivalent to a win rate of about 59.5%), while the high (over) was as high as 2.05. This indicates that while the market agrees with Djurgårdens' win rate, there is a high skepticism about a total of over 4 goals (4.5 high zone). The top three correct score scores are 2:1, 2:0, and 1:0, all heavily concentrated in the low score range with under 3 goals. Djurgårtens' home style leans toward building an advantage and then slowing down the ball, with strong defensive shutout ability.
Tactical Simulation and Executable Configurations:
Given that the investment value for home win (1.32) is relatively low and the direction confidence is extremely high, [3.5] Fine can be used as the core execution asset with the highest confidence (covering core correct scores such as 2:0, 2:1, 3:0); The second option is paired with Handicap Home/Away[-1], with the home team expected to win 2:0 by 2 goals to complete the match.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.