Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
69.8%
Ordo
58.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.0%
Result
Market
69.8%
Ordo
58.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.0%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-04 01:00
· Ordo
Halmstads vs SiriusHalmstads vs Sirius
Predicted1-2
Actual0-2
Core configuration [3.5] narrow, second pick Sirius away win, model estimated score 1:2.
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
1. Market Pricing and Strength Gap
In this Swedish Allsvenskan match, Hamstadts hosted Sirius at home. The market opened a deep bet with an away win of 1.26, and after marginalization, the implied win rate reaches as high as 69.8%, indicating high market recognition of Sirius' overall strength and recent form; A home win of 7.0 (implied probability of 12.6%) reflects a significant disadvantage in overall strength and tough game ability.
2. Total Goals Baseline and Correct Score Structure Verification
The market raised the total goals baseline to 3.5 goals, but the low (under) price of 1.71 is significantly lower than the high (over) 2.01, indicating significant resistance for over 3.5 goals. Looking at the implied correct score rankings of the top three (1:2, 0:2, 0:1), the total goals scored all fall within the 1–3 goal range, with none surpassing the 3.5 goal mark. Tactically, Hamilstads are expected to make a strong retreat against a strong opponent; After taking the lead away, Sirius also tended to maintain possession and wear it out, making it difficult to blindly widen the gap.
3. Configuration Strategy
Given that there is a strong market consensus that Sirius will win, but the handicap market carries higher volatility risk, the asset with the highest self-assessed probability of playing is [3.5] Small. Combine AwayVictory to form a risk-controllable composite asset allocation.
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