Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.1%
Secondary
Market
50.0%
Ordo
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.0%
Result
Market
53.6%
Ordo
48.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.1%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-04 04:00
· Ordo
Kenya Women's Football Team vs Algeria WomenKenya Women's Football Team vs Algeria Women
Predicted0-2
Actual0-2
Core setup for away win, second pick [2.5] to hedge against low-post defensive risks
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Strength: Algeria has an advantage over Kenya in overall lineup coordination, midfield control, and attacking efficiency. Although Kenya had a strong desire to "overthrow" their home matches in the cup, their overall defense was prone to gaps in passing and cutting coordination, so they were likely to adopt a dense low-post defense and seek counterattack tactics in this match.
Market Pricing and Data Verification: After the market marginalizes, the market gives Algeria a 53.6% win rate (away win 1.64), with the handicap matching the strength comparison between the two sides. The under/under goals baseline is set at 2.5 goals (both over/under market pricing are 1.85). Combined with the popular correct scores (0:1, 1:1, 0:2), this reflects the market's expectation that Kenya lacks scoring methods and will find it difficult to engage in high-scoring battles throughout the match, with an overall bias toward a narrow-ball pattern.
Algeria Summary: Algeria women's team has the advantage in strength and strong control over tempo. Away win is the most confident core asset, supplemented by **[2.5] Fine defense against the risk of low-post stalemates.
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