Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
59.5%
Certus
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.1%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-08-10 00:00
· Certus
Horsens vs BrondbyHorsens vs Brondby
Predicted1-2
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] is large, second choice handicap away [-0.5/-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[-0.5/-1]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the third round of the 2026-27 Danish Super League. The newly promoted AC Horsens will face the traditional strong team Brøndby IF at home.
Tactics and lineup dynamics:
According to the latest news in 2026 retrieved from the Internet, Bangby started the season with 1 win, 1 score and 4 points, temporarily ranking third in the league. The overall defensive performance was solid (only conceding 1 goal in two games). However, Bonby faces a severe lineup test in this game. The main midfielders Marko Divković and Noah Nartey are both suspended due to red cards. In addition, the defense Sean Klaiber is also injured. The visiting team's midfield control and quality of advancement will inevitably be weakened.
As a newly promoted team this season, the home team Horsens started with 1 and 1 losses and ranked 9th with 1 point. However, it is worth noting that they were able to score goals in the first two games against strong opponents (Midtylland and Los Chalantes) (the scores were 1-2 and 1-1 respectively), showing strong adaptability and resilience in home counterattacks.
Market pricing and handicap bias:
The market initially gave a customer win of 1.54 (implied probability of about 57.3%), and the handicap was [-0.5/-1]. Taking into account the loss of combat effectiveness during the pain period of Bangbi, 57% of the customer wins have a certain degree of negative premium risk in the implicit pricing. Relatively speaking, the baseline setting of goal size [2.5] can better reflect the recent performance of both sides: Horsens has the ability to score goals, while Bumby will definitely attack given the superior strength. It is expected that the total number of goals scored by the two sides in the attack pattern is expected to reach or exceed 3 goals. Therefore, in the core configuration of this game, we avoid the high popularity of handicap and home win, and turn to goal size [2.5] as a defensive core asset, and use shallow handicap as the second choice.
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