Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
44.4%
Certus
60.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+15.6%
Result
Market
53.3%
Certus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-08-10 07:00
· Certus
Chicago Stars Women vs Bay FC WomenChicago Stars Women vs Bay FC Women
Predicted0-2
Actual0-0
Chicago's lineup is incomplete and the offense is weak. The core configuration wins away, second choice [2.5] details
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Through retrieval and cross-verification of the latest NWSL on-field data in 2026, this game shows an extremely disparate fundamental tilt, and the market's support for the away team has sufficient physical data support.
Lineup and injuries: The home team Chicago Stars FC is currently at the bottom of the league with 12 points (17 games, 4 wins and 13 losses). Jordyn Huitema, the absolute core of the team's offense, was listed on the season-ending list in July, and the team recently transferred main defender Kathrin Hendrich to Cologne, resulting in a devastating blow to both offense and defense. With only 9 goals scored in 17 games this season, the weak firepower will make it more difficult to create a real threat after losing the main forward.
Difference in fighting spirit and status: Although the visiting team Bay FC is in the middle and lower reaches (18 points), the overall lineup integrity and season scoring ability (18 goals) are significantly better than the home team. Chicago has recently fallen into a losing streak, and its morale has dropped to freezing point. Gulf FC has a good opportunity to grab points against the bottom team.
Market pricing bias: The market offers an initial pricing of 1.64 customer wins, with an implied probability of approximately 53.3%. Taking into account the nearly collapsed lineup depth and injuries of the home team, the visiting team's true probability of playing is estimated to be as high as 60%. In the handicap structure that lacks Asian Handicap protection, directly choose "away win" as the most valuable core asset. At the same time, combined with the home team's extremely weak scoring ability, the total number of goals scored in the game is biased towards boring games, so the second choice is "[2.5] fine".
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