Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
32.3%
Certus
35.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Settled
Chilean Division 1 · 2026-08-11 07:57
· Certus
Audax Italiano vs Deportivo NublenseAudax Italiano vs Deportivo Nublense
Predicted0-1
Actual2-2
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Chilean Serie A match, Ordas will face Nuebeles at home. After the latest real-time data and lineup search, we found that there is a certain gap between the market’s implicit pricing (home win 2.31) and the fundamentals of both parties, which provides an entry point for this game:
Record and defensive toughness: The visiting team Newberry is currently ranked 7th in the league with 25 points. It has only lost 3 times in 16 league games this season, showing its strong undefeated resilience. On the other hand, the home team Ordas has suffered 8 defeats in 17 league games this season and currently ranks 13th with only 19 points. The overall performance is relatively sluggish and the defense is unstable.
Injury wave: Ordas is currently experiencing a serious injury crisis. Many regular main players, including Nicolás Orellana and Cristóbal Muñoz, have been sidelined for a long time due to serious injuries such as cruciate ligaments. The depth and scheduling space in the midfield and backfield are greatly restricted. The lineup of Newberry is relatively complete.
Tactical and market bias: Even though the away team’s fundamentals and ranking are fully dominant, the market still gives Audas a slight concession of 2.31, mainly due to the traditional premium of home court advantage. However, combined with Odas's injury status and Newberry's high unbeaten rate, there is a big trap in forcing the home win or the home team direction.
Executable Configuration: The average number of goals scored and lost per game in recent league games for both sides has hovered around 2.5 goals, and the market has given a low water level of 1.70 for the 2.5 goal defense line, showing a high degree of awareness of guarding against boring games. In gray areas where directional probabilities are highly dispersed, [2.5] fine is the defensive asset with the highest confidence. In terms of secondary selection, based on the visiting team's excellent unbeaten rate, using the Asian Handicap Away[0] for water defense can effectively avoid the risk of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
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