Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
34.8%
Certus
36.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.8%
Settled
Brazilian Division 2 · 2026-08-12 06:28
· Certus
Avai vs Clube de Regatas BrasilAvai vs Clube de Regatas Brasil
Predicted1-0
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap main [0]
Primary[2.5] Under✓Secondarymain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Evaluation of Combat Power and Handicap Structure
Aiwal plays CRB at home, and the market offers an extremely symmetrical handicap of 2.55 | 2.86 | 2.55. The Asian handicap is fixed at a tie (home [0] 1.88 | away [0] 1.88). The data shows that the two sides are almost evenly matched in terms of overall combat strength, league status, and offensive and defensive indicators, and there is no clear direction of victory or defeat.
Goal pattern and tactical style
The benchmark line for the size of the total goals scored in the game is set at 2.5 goals, of which the "thin" low zone is priced as high as 1.56 (the implied probability is close to 60%), indicating that the market is highly optimistic about a low-scoring stalemate. The style of Brazil's second division league favors midfield battles and defensive confrontations. Eibar's home attack efficiency is limited, while CRB's away game strategy is mainly about defensive counterattacks, and both sides have relatively single methods of scoring goals.
Configuration thinking
Since the direction with the highest winning rate (34.6% for both home win/away win) is far below the 45% risk threshold, and the draw risk is as high as 30.8%, it is strictly prohibited to use the winning or losing direction (result/handicap_had) as the core main selection in this game. Strategically, the [2.5] fine should be the asset with the highest certainty; the second choice should be supplemented by the handicap main[0]**, which has a slight home advantage. If there is a draw, the game can be played to protect the capital and serve as a secondary defense.
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