Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
56.7%
Certus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.3%
Result
Market
73.6%
Certus
63.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.7%
Settled
Leagues Cup · 2026-08-13 10:30
· Certus
Los Angeles FC vs QueretaroLos Angeles FC vs Queretaro
Predicted2-0
Actual1-1
Core configuration: main [-1/-1.5], second choice goal size [3.5] fine
PrimaryMain[-1/-1.5]—Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Gap in strength and status: FC Los Angeles (LAFC) advanced with an unbeaten record of 1 win, 1 win (1-0 win over Toluca, 1-1 and Chivas Regal in regular time) in the 2026 North American League Cup group stage, and the defensive system is quite solid. In contrast, Queretaro lost all 2 games in the group stage (losing 0-2 to Dallas and 0-3 to Seattle). Not only did they concede 5 goals, but they also failed to gain anything offensively. There is a clear level difference between the two teams in terms of competitive status and both offensive and defensive ends.
2. Evaluation of lineup and fighting spirit: As a cup competition, LAFC has a strong lineup to cope with rotation. In the last game against Toluca, Eddie Segura, who came on the bench, scored the winning goal. Queretaro is obviously not adaptable to the rhythm of the Major League team. This game is a guest in Los Angeles. It is expected that it will be extremely difficult to organize an effective counterattack.
3. Market implicit pricing bias: The market predicts a home win of 1.25 (implied probability as high as 70.5%), and gives a high goal baseline of 3.5 goals. Considering Queretaro's serious "front weakness", it is not easy for LAFC to break through the 3.5 goal mark unilaterally. The market may have overestimated the potential contribution of the visiting team to the total number of goals scored.
4. Handicap configuration suggestions: On the premise that the home team has a very high winning rate expectation, the core asset is to first select the Asian Handicap Master [-1/-1.5]; at the same time, in order to defend against the common rotation rhythm of the cup where LAFC replaces the main force early after taking the lead, the second choice is the Goal Size [3.5] Fine, which has extremely high investment defense value (while avoiding the restriction that high baseline thin handicaps cannot be the first choice).
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