Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
50.9%
Ordo
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.2%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 07:30
· Ordo
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FCVancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core setup [3.5] Fine, secondary pick main [0] defense to avoid draws and go down
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this match, the Vancouver Whitecaps hosted FC Los Angeles. From the perspective of market structured pricing and market layout, the home win pricing 1.73 has an implied win rate of about 50.9% after margin, currently in the gray zone of 42%–52% win rate, indicating a certain degree of dispersion in the market's directional certainty.
Notably, the total goals baseline is set high at 3.5 goals, with the lower end ([3.5] small) priced as low as 1.58 (implied probability as high as 62%). In the correct score rankings, the top three most probable scores are 2:1 (market pricing 7.0), 1:1 (market pricing 7.5), and 1:0 (market pricing 9.75), with total goals all limited to 3 goals or fewer, reflecting the clubs' reservation about over-ball defensive ability.
Considering the tactical game, although Vancouver Whitecaps had some dominance at home, their in-game offense and defense shifted more toward a midfield stalemate. Assuming the probability of winning is not absolute, a low defensive goal count ([3.5] small) is the most reliable executable asset for the match, with the second option supplemented by handicap to hedge the risk of a draw.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
