Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
62.2%
Ordo
53.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.6%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 08:30
· Ordo
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FCChicago Fire vs Charlotte FC
Predicted2-0
Actual2-1
Core configuration [3.5] Fine, second pick is handicap, main [-1] water movement defense
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this American Pro League match, Chicago Flames hosted Charlotte FC. Analysis from the perspective of market structured pricing and data systems:
Win-loss structure and probability distribution: The market has established a clear advantage for the Chicago Fire, with a home win implied at 62.2% (corresponding market pricing of 1.42), far higher than the away win of 17.3% and the draw of 20.5%. The home team's expectations for dominance at home are quite strong.
* Total Goals and Pattern Anchored: The data premium baseline is set at 3.5 goals, with the 'Thin Ball' low-end priced at just 1.61, indicating the market is highly biased toward low-scoring contests. Comparing the most popular correct score predictions (2:1, 2:0, 1:0), the confidence that the total goals for the match falls between 2 and 3 goals is extremely high.
* Asset Allocation Decisions: In the context of home team handicap markets requiring net winnings, [3.5] Fine offers the highest win rate guarantee and stability, making it a core allocation; The second option is paired with Handicap Home [-1], which provides a breakeven defense when winning by one goal while also offering a good risk-reward ratio.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
