Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.2%
Secondary
Market
59.5%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.9%
Result
Market
59.5%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.9%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 07:30
· Ordo
Inter Miami CF vs Columbus CrewInter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
Core setup [3.5] Detailed, second pick for home win to strengthen the roster
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
The highlight MLS match featured Inter Miami hosting the Columbus Crew. The latest implied market price gives a home win at 1.48 (with a home win probability of about 59.5% after the several), highly acknowledging the home team's dominance at home and the attacking stars' scoring ability.
Tactics and Lineup Dynamics: Inter Miami's home offense is highly creative, but there are still some gaps in the defense during transitions; Columbus's crew is highly tactical and is expected to pull back their defensive line moderately in the away match, using efficient counterattacks to contain the home team.
Data Actuarial and Premium Estimation: The market has pushed the total goals baseline for this match significantly higher to 3.5 goals (high zone 1.88 |). Low zone 1.82). Although both sides have frontcourt talent, the top three scorers in the correct score market imply 2:1, 1:1, and 3:1 respectively, suggesting the match is very likely to be stuck at the 3-goal boundary. The model self-rated [3.5] has a close hit probability of about 58%, offering a better margin of safety and better calculation value than high-threshold big balls.
Asset Allocation Logic: At a high 3.5 total goals baseline, the marginal premium space at the steering wheel is limited, so the most stable probability and value [3.5] small is chosen as the preferred core asset; Taking advantage of Inter Miami's home advantage, a home win is used as a secondary pick, with an estimated full-time score of 2:1.
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