Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.2%
Ordo
37.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.8%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 07:30
· Ordo
DC United vs Nashville SCDC United vs Nashville SC
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this American professional league game (2026-08-02), Washington United hosted Nashvell. According to the latest implied market market pricing, the away team Narshuwel (2.25) has a slight edge with a win rate of about 39.2%, while the home team Washington United (2.73) has a win rate of about 32.3%, and a draw market pricing (3.10) have an implied probability of 28.5%. Since neither side has an absolute win rate advantage (the highest win rate is less than 45% and the tie probability is ≥ 28%), there is significant disagreement and risk in the direction of the win.
Regarding goal pricing, the 'under' of 2.5 goals (low zone priced at 1.75) is clearly supported by market data, with an estimated probability of over 57%. The top three favorites for correct score scores are 1:1, 0:1, and 1:0, all showing a tightly contested scoreline. Taking into account the balance of power and market structure, this session prioritizes [2.5] Detail as the core asset with the highest conviction; On the defensive side, the Away[0] offers a defensive barrier against draws and refunds.
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