Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.1%
Ordo
39.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.7%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 08:30
· Ordo
St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt LakeSt. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
An in-depth analysis of the on-the-spot data from the 2026-08-02 MLS 'St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake City':
Market Pricing and Gray Area Characteristics:
Currently, the market prices are for main win at 2.10 (implied win rate after margin is 42.1%), draw at 3.45 (25.6%), and away win at 2.73 (32.3%). The home win rate falls into the "gray zone" of 42%–52%, indicating that institutions are not very certain about the home team winning outright, implying a higher marginal risk in a win-win direction.
Offensive Expectations and Goal Pitch Distribution:
The 'high area (over)' market pricing for under 2.5 goals are as low as 1.56 (implied probability significantly biased towards over). MLS plays at a fast pace and defensive transitions often leave gaps. Both institutions and the market strongly favor both sides to score, and the top three favorites for correct score (1:1, 2:1, 1:2) further confirm expectations for open up play.
Tactics and Asset Allocation:
With limited confidence in the direction of winning, [2.5] large with a high data premium and a probability of 62% became the highest confidence primary executable asset in this match. On the defensive side, home[0] Asian handicap draws are allocated as secondary assets to guard against the risk of a 1:1 draw losing money.
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