Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+10.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
49.5%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.2%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 07:30
· Ordo
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose EarthquakesFC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
Predicted2-1
Actual4-2
Core setup [3.5] Detailed, secondary choice is main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
FC Cincinnati hosted the San Jose Earthquakes in this match. An in-depth analysis of market structured pricing and data systems:
Win/Loss Probability Gray Area Limit: The market opens a home win at 1.78, and after the drawdown, the implied probability of a home win is about 49.5%, which is a typical gray area of 42%–52%. Although the home team has home advantage, their certainty of victory is not yet sufficient to strongly recommend three home wins.
High Over/Under Baseline: The market has raised the over/under baseline to [3.5] goals (high zone 1.75 / low zone 1.95), overhyping expectations that both teams will open up attacks. However, under tactical constraints between the two teams, the estimated score was 2-1, with a total of 3 goals scored, making it difficult to surpass the 4-goal mark.
Allocation Strategy: Use the most confident [3.5] detail as the core main asset (self-rated probability of 58%), supplemented by main[0] (Asian handicap draw) to hedge draw risk and achieve outflow defense.
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