Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.3%
Ordo
39.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-02 07:30
· Ordo
CF Montreal vs New England RevolutionCF Montreal vs New England Revolution
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
Core allocation [2.5] large, secondary choice main [0] to hedge draw risk
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Here is a key analysis of the on-the-spot strength and market structure of MLS CF Montreal vs New England Revolution:
Market Pricing and Gray Zone Traps: Currently, the home win has opened at 2.09 (with a 42.3% implied probability after removing the pull), which is in the typical gray zone of 42%–52%. With a draw implied probability of 26.8%, simply asset allocation on a home win carries a much higher marginal risk and lacks sufficient extreme win probability support.
Analysis of Offensive and Defensive Dynamics and Goal Scores: The data premium baseline is set at 2.5 goals, with the over zone priced at only 1.74, showing a clear attacking bias and goal expectations. During the transition period of defensive shifts on both sides, there have been gaps, with more opportunities to switch attacks, and the space for Gao's total goals has been significantly expanded.
Allocation Strategy Logic: Since the steering wheel is in the gray zone, the optimal asset allocation should focus on high-confidence goal over/under ('[2.5] over'); For the winner, Asian handicap draws ('Home [0]') are used for defense, effectively avoiding the risk of losing money and principal from 1:1 or 2:2 draws.
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